Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📌 Key Research Highlights
- Broker: Shinhan Securities | Rating: Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price: 450,000 KRW (~$332.84 USD based on 1352 KRW/USD)
- Core Thesis: Rapid penetration into the HBM4 market is expected to drive market share toward 40% by 2027, supported by aggressive packaging capacity expansions.
- 3Q26 Outlook: Operating profit is projected to exceed 100 trillion KRW (~$73.97B USD) despite the reflection of provisions.
Investment Thesis and Target Price
Shinhan Securities maintains a Buy rating and a Target Price of 450,000 KRW (~$332.84 USD). The valuation is based on a 12-month forward Book Value Per Share (BPS) of 125,105 KRW (~$92.53 USD) and a Target PBR of 3.6x, which aligns with the DRAM Peer group average (applying a 50% Discount to CXMT). The analyst notes that while HBM performance was previously sluggish, the opening of the HBM4 market will lead to a sharp increase in penetration, with a target market share of approximately 40% by 2027. The recent announcement of aggressive HBM packaging capacity expansion is viewed as a sign of confidence. Furthermore, the transition to next-generation HBM allows for price renegotiations, enabling the company to enter the market with secured profitability.
Earnings Estimates and Financial Preview
3Q26 Preview: Revenue is estimated at 197.2 trillion KRW (~$145.86B USD, +15% QoQ) and Operating Profit at 104.5 trillion KRW (~$77.29B USD, +17% QoQ). Divisional operating profit breakdowns are as follows:
- Memory: 107 trillion KRW (~$79.14B USD) — comprising DRAM (79.6 trillion KRW / ~$58.88B USD) and NAND Flash (27.4 trillion KRW / ~$20.26B USD).
- Non-Memory: -2.1 trillion KRW (~$-1.55B USD) due to unavoidable provisions despite improved utilization and yields.
- Mobile (MX/NW): -1.7 trillion KRW (~$-1.26B USD).
- Consumer Electronics (VD/CE): -0.1 trillion KRW (~$-74M USD).
- Display (SDC): 1 trillion KRW (~$739.64M USD).
- Harman: 0.4 trillion KRW (~$295.86M USD).
For the full year 2026F, the analyst forecasts Revenue of 703.3 trillion KRW (~$520.19B USD) and Operating Profit of 362.0 trillion KRW (~$267.75B USD). For 2027F, estimates rise to Revenue of 885.8 trillion KRW (~$655.18B USD) and Operating Profit of 528.6 trillion KRW (~$390.98B USD).
Key Semiconductor Drivers and Catalysts
- HBM4 Roadmap: Full-scale sales expansion of HBM4 is expected to materialize starting in 4Q26.
- Turnkey Solution Potential: While customer specification adjustments have been a concern, a shift toward product customization could lead to a re-evaluation of Samsung’s turnkey solution, as they produce the Base die internally.
- Memory Pricing: 3Q26 ASP growth is estimated at 20% for DRAM and 17% for NAND Flash.
- Strategic Shifts: The company is pursuing high-value creation through collaborations with AI firms within its set (device) divisions.
🔗 Original Source: View the official filing/article here.