Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📌 Key Research Highlights
- Broker: Mirae Asset Securities
- Investment Rating: Buy
- Target Price: 3,100,000 KRW (~$2,309 USD based on 1343 KRW/USD)
- Core Thesis: Market concerns regarding HBM specifications and corporate governance have been neutralized; growth is driven by accelerated DRAM transitions and robust HBM demand.
Investment Thesis and Target Price
Mirae Asset Securities maintains a Buy rating and a Target Price of 3,100,000 KRW (~$2,309 USD based on 1343 KRW/USD), recommending an overweight position. The analyst asserts that recent market concerns—including potential HBM specification downgrades, one-time costs, and the possible dual listing of Solidigm—have been fully absorbed. Specifically, the shift from 12-layer to 8-layer HBM4 is viewed as a redistribution of capacity to maximize unit counts amid supply shortages, with limited impact on profitability as both are in mature yield stages. Regarding Solidigm, the company’s official stance on prioritizing shareholder value and the fact that listing rumors indicate a critical need for NAND capacity are viewed as positive indicators.
Earnings Estimates and Financial Preview
The brokerage has revised its operating profit estimates upward across multiple periods:
- 3Q26F Operating Profit: Raised to 77 trillion KRW (~$57.3B USD) from the previous estimate of 73 trillion KRW (~$54.3B USD).
- 4Q26F Operating Profit: Raised to 86 trillion KRW (~$64.0B USD) from 84 trillion KRW (~$62.5B USD).
- 2027F Operating Profit: Raised to 396 trillion KRW (~$295B USD) from 386 trillion KRW (~$287.5B USD).
The upward revision is driven by the expansion of M15X and the accelerated transition to advanced DRAM, with DRAM bit shipments in 4Q26 expected to exceed 3Q26 levels.
Key Semiconductor Drivers and Catalysts
- HBM Demand and Pricing: HBM demand remains stronger than expected, with industry players accelerating capacity expansion to meet GPU and ASIC customer requirements. The revenue contribution of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is estimated to increase from approximately 15% this year to 20% next year.
- Margin Outlook: While the margin gap between HBM and commodity DRAM narrowed due to the latter’s price surge, the analyst expects HBM margins to rise further next year and remain elevated for a significant period, noting that Big Tech ASIC-bound HBM3E prices have room for further increases.
- Shareholder Returns: The 40 trillion KRW (~$29.8B USD) share buyback and cancellation announced on August 19 has been over 70% executed, faster than originally planned. Future returns are expected to be sustained based on a policy of returning over 50% of cumulative Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2025-2027.
🔗 Original Source: View the official filing/article here.