Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📌 Key Research Highlights
- Broker: Kiwoom Securities
- Investment Rating: Top Pick (Sector)
- 4Q26 Operating Profit Forecast: 116.06 trillion KRW (~$87.1B USD based on 1333 KRW/USD)
- Core Thesis: Short-term momentum is shifting toward shareholder return policies, while long-term re-rating is expected via HBM4 market share expansion and ASP increases.
Investment Thesis and Target Price
Kiwoom Securities maintains Samsung Electronics as the Top Pick within the semiconductor sector. While a specific numerical Target Price was not updated in this note, the analyst highlights a shift in short-term stock price catalysts from ‘earnings upward revisions’ to the ‘direction and scale of shareholder returns.’ In the medium-to-long term, the analyst expects a significant valuation re-rating driven by the expansion of market share in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) and subsequent increases in average selling prices (ASPs).
Earnings Estimates and Financial Preview
3Q26 Review (Preliminary):
- Revenue: 195.12 trillion KRW (~$146.4B USD), up 14% QoQ, meeting company expectations.
- Operating Profit: 107.4 trillion KRW (~$80.6B USD), up 20% QoQ, meeting company expectations.
- Divisional Operating Profit:
- DS (Device Solutions): 107.62 trillion KRW (~$80.7B USD), +21% QoQ
- SDC (Samsung Display): 1.07 trillion KRW (~$803M USD), +52% QoQ
- MX/NW: -1.38 trillion KRW (~$1.04B USD), continued loss
- VD/DA: -0.36 trillion KRW (~$268M USD), continued loss
4Q26 Forecast:
- Revenue: 202.63 trillion KRW (~$152.0B USD), +4% QoQ.
- Operating Profit: 116.06 trillion KRW (~$87.1B USD), +8% QoQ.
- Divisional Operating Profit Forecast:
- DS: 117.07 trillion KRW (~$87.8B USD), +9% QoQ
- SDC: 1.16 trillion KRW (~$871M USD), +8% QoQ
- MX/NW: -1.94 trillion KRW (~$1.46B USD), continued loss
- VD/DA: -0.58 trillion KRW (~$435M USD), continued loss
Key Semiconductor Drivers and Catalysts
Memory Market Trends:
- Pricing Momentum: Price increases are expected to continue in 4Q26, though the pace is slowing, with DRAM projected at +11% QoQ and NAND Flash at +15% QoQ.
- Segment Performance: The Memory division remains the primary profit driver, with 4Q26 Memory operating profit estimated at 119.57 trillion KRW (~$89.7B USD).
- Non-Memory: The Foundry and S.LSI divisions are expected to maintain operating losses.
Other Business Units:
- DX Division: Operating losses are expected to widen due to the rising cost of memory components.
- SDC: Slight growth is anticipated due to peak season demand from major customers.
🔗 Original Source: View the official filing/article here.