Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📌 Key Research Highlights
- Broker: Hana Securities
- Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price: 480,000 KRW (~$360.09 USD based on 1333 KRW/USD)
- Core Thesis: Strong fundamental recovery driven by DRAM price surges and severe LPDDR shortages for AI systems, with potential stock price catalysts linked to shareholder return policies.
Investment Thesis and Target Price
Hana Securities maintains a Buy rating and a Target Price of 480,000 KRW (~$360.09 USD based on 1333 KRW/USD). Despite the stock’s stagnant price movement, the analyst emphasizes that fundamentals are consistently proving to be stronger than expected. A key catalyst for price recovery is expected to be the announcement of additional shareholder returns in January 2027, specifically if the company mentions treasury stock buybacks within the year to resolve supply-demand overhangs in the equity market.
Earnings Estimates and Financial Preview
Samsung Electronics’ 3Q26 results were largely in line with consensus. Revenue reached 195 trillion KRW (~$146.29B USD), up 127% Year-over-Year (YoY) and 14% Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ). Operating profit was 107.4 trillion KRW (~$80.57B USD), representing a massive 780% YoY increase and a 20% QoQ increase.
Divisional Operating Profit Breakdown (Estimated):
- Semiconductor: 107.7 trillion KRW (~$80.80B USD)
- Memory: 109.2 trillion KRW (~$81.92B USD)
- S.LSI/Foundry: -1.5 trillion KRW (~$-1.13B USD)
- SDC (Display): 1.2 trillion KRW (~$900.23M USD)
- MX/NW (Mobile/Network): -0.6 trillion KRW (~$-450.11M USD)
- VD/DA (Visual Display/Digital Appliances): -1.1 trillion KRW (~$-825.18M USD)
- Harman: 0.4 trillion KRW (~$300.08M USD)
In the memory sector, DRAM prices rose 20% QoQ, exceeding the 15% estimate, while NAND prices rose 17% QoQ, slightly missing the 18% estimate. However, overall memory performance was slightly below estimates due to shipment constraints caused by process transitions (DRAM B/G 3% vs 4% est; NAND B/G 4% vs 7% est).
Key Semiconductor Drivers and Catalysts
- DRAM Pricing Momentum: Despite an increase in long-term supply contracts as customers seek cost stability, spot prices remain high. Customers without long-term contracts are forced to pay premiums to secure supply.
- Structural Shortage: Considering the expansion schedules of the top three DRAM makers, the current supply shortage is likely to persist until 2028, making a price decline highly unlikely.
- LPDDR Criticality: The shortage of LPDDR integrated into AI systems is identified as the most severe, marking it as the primary product to watch for future price appreciation.
- Other Divisional Notes: MX/NW showed notable profitability improvement through the strong sales of foldable series and price hikes to offset cost increases, while VD/DA saw expanded losses due to rising raw material/logistics costs and promotion expenses.
🔗 Original Source: View the official filing/article here.