Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📌 Key Research Highlights
- Broker: Hana Securities | Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price: 480,000 KRW (~$352.94 USD based on 1360 KRW/USD)
- Core Thesis: While FX assumptions led to a downward revision of estimates, the long-term outlook remains strong driven by the ramp-up of HBM4 and robust Memory pricing.
- 3Q26 Outlook: Projected Revenue of 196 trillion KRW (~$144.1B USD) and Operating Profit of 108 trillion KRW (~$79.4B USD).
Investment Thesis and Target Price
Hana Securities maintains a Buy rating and a Target Price of 480,000 KRW (~$352.94 USD). Although the analyst revised the 2027 operating profit estimates downward due to currency fluctuations, the target price remains unchanged because the 12-month forward valuation now places a higher weight on 2027 performance. The valuation is supported by the high visibility of long-term supply contracts and the expected expansion of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) revenue, which is viewed as a catalyst for valuation premium.
Earnings Estimates and Financial Preview
3Q26 Preview:
- Revenue: 196 trillion KRW (~$144.1B USD), representing a Year-over-Year (YoY) increase of 127% and a Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) increase of 14%.
- Operating Profit: 108 trillion KRW (~$79.4B USD), a YoY increase of 788% and a QoQ increase of 21%.
- Revision Note: Estimates were lowered from previous forecasts due to a reduction in the KRW/USD exchange rate assumption from 1,500 to 1,415.
Divisional Breakdown:
- Memory: Operating profit is estimated at 110 trillion KRW (~$80.9B USD), exceeding the total company profit. DRAM and NAND prices are expected to rise by 15% and 18%, respectively.
- Foundry: Expected to narrow losses QoQ, driven by increased utilization of 4nm nodes.
- Display: Positive outlook due to the peak season and new product launches from North American customers.
- DX Division: Expected to see widening losses QoQ due to increased cost burdens and promotional spending.
2027 Forecast:
- Revenue: 875 trillion KRW (~$643.4B USD), YoY +25%.
- Operating Profit: 519 trillion KRW (~$381.6B USD), YoY +41%.
- Note: These figures were revised down by 7% and 9% respectively, solely due to the 2027 FX assumption being lowered from 1,458 to 1,340 KRW/USD.
Key Semiconductor Drivers and Catalysts
HBM Roadmap and Revenue Mix:
The primary catalyst for 2027 is the full-scale shipment of HBM4 to major customers. HBM is expected to account for approximately 15% of total DRAM revenue in 2027, a significant increase from under 5% in 2026 (where general DRAM price hikes dominated). As general DRAM price growth stabilizes due to long-term contracts, HBM volume growth will become the primary earnings driver.
Product Specifics:
- DRAM: Bit growth is expected to align with guidance, driven by HBM shipments despite limited growth in general DRAM volume.
- NAND Flash: Robust performance is expected to continue, supported by expanded sales of enterprise SSDs (eSSD).
- Foundry: While depreciation costs from the Taylor plant will be a burden, there is potential for earnings upside depending on 2nm yield improvements.
🔗 Original Source: View the official filing/article here.