Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📌 Key Research Highlights
- Broker: Daishin Securities
- Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price: 560,000 KRW (~$414.20 USD based on 1352 KRW/USD) (Maintained)
- Core Thesis: The semiconductor upcycle is expected to expand further due to widening supply-demand gaps and improved technological competitiveness, particularly in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Investment Thesis and Target Price
Daishin Securities maintains a Buy rating and a 6-month Target Price of 560,000 KRW (~$414.20 USD based on 1352 KRW/USD). The analyst argues that the current market is exhibiting numerous positive signs of demand strength, which serves as evidence for the sustained strength of the upcycle. While the risk of aggressive capacity expansion (blindly trusting demand) may only be verifiable by 2H27, the current focus should remain on the further expansion of the cycle. The convergence of favorable industry conditions and strengthened technological competitiveness warrants a positive investment approach.
Earnings Estimates and Financial Preview
The report forecasts a massive surge in financial performance for 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by the DS (Device Solutions) division:
- Revenue Forecasts: 2026F of 691,283 billion KRW (~$511.3B USD) and 2027F of 909,364 billion KRW (~$672.6B USD).
- Operating Profit Forecasts: 2026F of 367,724 billion KRW (~$271.9B USD) and 2027F of 549,184 billion KRW (~$406.2B USD).
- Divisional Breakdown (2026F): The DS division is expected to generate 504,890 billion KRW (~$373.4B USD) in revenue with an operating profit of 363,813 billion KRW (~$269.1B USD), reflecting an operating margin of 72%.
- Memory Segment (2026F): DRAM revenue is estimated at 343,925 billion KRW (~$254.4B USD) and NAND Flash revenue at 133,561 billion KRW (~$98.8B USD).
- Shareholder Returns: The analyst projects a 2026 Dividend Per Share (DPS) of 13,014 KRW (~$9.63 USD), assuming remaining shareholder return resources are paid as special dividends.
Key Semiconductor Drivers and Catalysts
- Supply-Demand Gap: During next year’s demand negotiations and long-term contract signings, multiple customers have presented purchase TAMs exceeding expectations. This is expected to raise the short-term price ceiling. Samsung is utilizing a “Rolling Base” contract system to secure demand visibility for up to 5 years (currently discussing volumes for 2031).
- HBM Competitiveness: Samsung is projected to secure the #1 market share in HBM by 2027. Profitability is improving through:
- Price Advantage: Lower dependence on a single customer and aggressive price increase policies.
- Cost Improvement: Early yield improvement in DRAM 1c, with current front-end yields estimated at 80%.
- Shareholder Return Policy: Expectations are high for a more market-friendly policy in the next cycle (2027-2029), to be announced in January 2027, potentially including more active treasury stock buybacks and cancellations.
🔗 Original Source: View the official filing/article here.